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2020 was the joint hottest year on record despite a 7% drop in greenhouse gas emissions. Why? 

The average temperature across the world in 2020 was <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/2020-warmest-year-record-europe-globally-2020-ties-2016-warmest-year-recorded" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1.25°C higher than pre-industrial times</a>. This is dangerously close to the 1.5°C limit set by the world nations to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and made 2020 the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/2020-warmest-year-record-europe-globally-2020-ties-2016-warmest-year-recorded" target="_blank" rel="noopener">joint hottest year on record</a>.  This means the last six years have been the six hottest years on record and that the period from 2011-2020 was the <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/2020-warmest-year-record-europe-globally-2020-ties-2016-warmest-year-recorded" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hottest decade ever recorded</a>.
Only 2016 matched the heat recorded in 2020, however in 2016 there was a natural <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">El Niño climate event</a> that boosts temperatures. Without the added factor of this natural event in 2016, <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/2020-warmest-year-record-europe-globally-2020-ties-2016-warmest-year-recorded" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scientists predict that 2020</a> would have been the outright hottest year. 
Meanwhile, Europe saw its warmest year on record at <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/2020-warmest-year-record-europe-globally-2020-ties-2016-warmest-year-recorded" target="_blank" rel="noopener">0.4°C warmer than 2019</a>, the previous hottest year on record. The Arctic and northern Siberia also saw particularly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jan/08/climate-crisis-experts-2020-joint-hottest-year-ever-recorded" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extreme average temperatures in 2020</a>, with a large region 3°C warmer than the long-term average, and some locations more than 6°C warmer. This led Arctic sea ice to shrink to its <a href="http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/09/arctic-sea-ice-decline-stalls-out-at-second-lowest-minimum/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second-lowest extent</a> on record in september 2020. 
All this occurred in the year that we saw a <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/12/3269/2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">7% drop in worldwide greenhouse gas emissions</a> due to the global shutdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally the burning of fossil fuels released <a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">34.1 billion tonnes</a> of carbon dioxide in 2020, down 2.3 billion tonnes from the previous year. The most<a href="https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> dramatic reduction</a> in emissions was seen in the transport sector, especially road traffic, with a steep dive in April when countries across the world had imposed strict limits on travel. Emissions from aviation were also reduced drastically, with a reduction of <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-carbon-project-coronavirus-causes-record-fall-in-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2020" target="_blank" rel="noopener">75%</a> seen during the peak of COVID-19 lockdowns. At the start of December 2020, emissions from road transport and aviation were still lower than their December 2019 levels, by <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/global-carbon-project-coronavirus-causes-record-fall-in-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2020" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10% and 40% respectively</a>. 
Why is it that in the year in which the coronavirus pandemic drove one of the largest, most dramatic drops in human CO2 emissions ever recorded, did we see an increase in warming? It&#8217;s all to do with how long CO2 remains in our atmosphere.

Throughout human history, the Earth&#8217;s climate has been changing. But the changes we are seeing now are happening much faster than they would do naturally. This is because of humans emitting carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. 
Greenhouse gases are gases that trap heat in a process called the greenhouse effect. When the sun’s energy reaches the Earth, some of it is absorbed by the Earth&#8217;s surface, and the rest is reflected back outwards. Most of this goes back into space, but some is absorbed by greenhouse gases and re-radiated back towards the Earth, causing further warming. The greenhouse effect is a natural process, without which the average temperature on the Earth would be <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/focus-areas/environment/greenhouse%20gases#:~:text=The%20natural%20greenhouse%20effect%20is,approximately%2033%20degrees%20Celsius%20cooler." target="_blank" rel="noopener">-18°C</a>. 
However, human activities are accelerating this process by putting more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, meaning that more heat is re-radiated back towards the Earth and leading to increased levels of warming. CO2 is the single most important greenhouse gas directly released by human activity. It is produced in high quantities by human sources and it stays in the atmosphere for a long time. This CO2 builds up in the atmosphere and continues to cause warming year after year.

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The difference between emissions and concentrations

The carbon dioxide that we release into the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels, industry processes, and deforestation is referred to as emissions. These are measured by the amount of greenhouse gas that we release into the atmosphere each year. 
The carbon dioxide that we release stays in the atmosphere for a very long time. This means that when we release more CO2 it adds to the big store of CO2 that is already there. The amount of CO2 that is actually in the atmosphere is called the CO2 concentration. It&#8217;s this store of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that traps the Earth&#8217;s heat, leading to climate change. The atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased dramatically in recent decades due to human emissions. Currently it is about <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">415 parts per million</a> (ppm).

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Each year as we emit more and more, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere gets higher and higher. But even if we stopped emitting any greenhouse gases right now, the emissions we have already released over the past 200 years would still be there to cause warming. This is because CO2 has such a long lifetime. It is estimated that <a href="https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/briefings/Short_Lived_Promise.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">15-40% </a>of the increase in CO2 due to fossil fuels is expected to remain in the atmosphere for over 1000 years. 
One analogy, used by the <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-impact-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-have-on-atmospheric-co2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">carbon brief</a>, is the filling up of a bath from a tap. If the tap represents CO2 emissions and the water level in the bath is the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, then reducing emissions slightly is the same as slightly turning the tap down. Water is still flowing into the bath and so the level is still rising, just a bit slower. In the same way reducing emissions slightly does not immediately reduce concentrations of CO2, it only slows down the rate of increase. The carbon dioxide humans have already emitted can remain in the atmosphere for a hundred years; some of it could last <a href="https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/06/25/covid-19-impacts-climate-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tens of thousands of years</a>.

What effect has the COVID-19 pandemic had? 

This explains why we didn&#8217;t immediately see an effect of the drop in emissions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Although less CO2 was emitted in 2020 than in previous years, the CO2 that was emitted still added to the ongoing-build up in the atmosphere. 
One study predicted that across the whole of 2020, CO2 levels in the atmosphere would rise by <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-impact-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-have-on-atmospheric-co2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2.48ppm</a> (parts per million). This increase is <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-impact-will-the-coronavirus-pandemic-have-on-atmospheric-co2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">0.32ppm smaller</a> than if there had been no lockdown, but it is still an increase in the total atmospheric concentration, and since warming is related to cumulative emissions, the overall amount of avoided warming will be minimal. Until net global emissions reduce to zero, CO2 will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere and drive further change.

Hopefully this article has made it a bit clearer why the drop in emissions caused by lockdowns hasn&#8217;t perhaps had the impact on the climate that we may have hoped for. We need to see a continued reduction in emissions year after year, before this will start to impact significantly on the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The UK Met Office has issued a forecast that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere will pass a new milestone in 2021 &#8211; being <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2021/2021-carbon-dioxide-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">50% higher than before the industrial revolution</a>. This not only means that we have released a massive amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, but also the rate at which we have done so has increased significantly. It took over 200 years for the levels to increase by 25%, but now at just 30 years later we are approaching a 50% increase. 
Even if we reduce emissions now, it can take a while for these to have an effect on temperatures. This can seem demoralising, but it is why it is so important to act now. Our actions will take a while to impact on temperatures and there&#8217;s a certain amount of warming already baked in. We can’t allow any more warming to happen.
It is estimated that emissions need to decrease by <a href="https://www.unep.org/interactive/emissions-gap-report/2019/#:~:text=Today%2C%20we%20need%20to%20reduce,are%20ambitious%2C%20but%20still%20possible." target="_blank" rel="noopener">7.6% each year between 2020 and 2030 </a>to be on track to achieve the 1.5°C goal. Last year we roughly achieved the 7% reduction needed. This year we need to decrease 7.6% again from last year&#8217;s emissions, and then 7.6% below this in 2022 and so on. Each year must have a reduction of 7.6% on the year before that. 
So, last year showed a good start if you just look at emissions. But think about what it took for us to get there. Over 2.5 million people have now died from coronavirus, millions were out of work, car traffic in April was almost half of what it normally is, and air traffic virtually stopped completely. We need policies and action now to reduce emissions in a more stable and sustainable way.

How might we achieve the emissions reductions needed? 

We need rapid decarbonisation of the energy sector. Sadly <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy-mix" target="_blank" rel="noopener">84.3% of our energy</a> still comes from fossil fuels, which release CO2 into the atmosphere. We need to rapidly transition away from these polluting energy sources and towards clean renewable energy technologies such as wind, solar and hydro energy. 
We also need a global shift towards sustainable and climate-smart agriculture. <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/food-ghg-emissions" target="_blank" rel="noopener">26% of worldwide emissions </a>come from the agricultural sector, but by employing methods such as agroforestry, crop rotations, crop diversification, precision agriculture and many more we can ensure that enough food can be made on the same land indefinitely, without depleting our natural resources and minimising emissions. We also need policies and action to reduce deforestation and land clearance, particularly from the agricultural sector. 
Investments in industrial innovations are also needed to decarbonise more difficult sectors &#8211; such as the steel industry, and to tackle some of the open problems such as the need for better energy storage for wind and solar energy and improved electric batteries.

We all have a role to play if we are to achieve the emissions reductions needed. Bill Gates in his book <a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/Energy/My-new-climate-book-is-finally-here" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘How to avoid a climate disaster’</a> wisely highlighted three key things that ordinary people can do. 
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li aria-level="1">Use your political voice &#8211; Vote for parties that put climate change on the agenda. Parties can disagree on tactics to help get to zero but it needs to be a primary goal. You can also use your voice to talk to people that you know about climate change, and bring them around to the cause, even if their general political opinions are different to yours. Maximise the power of your voice by engaging in activism and joining groups such as <a href="https://www.greenpeace.org.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Greenpeace</a>, <a href="https://friendsoftheearth.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Friends of the Earth</a>, <a href="https://fridaysforfuture.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fridays for Future</a> and <a href="https://extinctionrebellion.uk/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Extinction Rebellion</a>.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li aria-level="1">As a consumer, make the right choices &#8211; The old saying ‘vote with your wallet’ really applies here. It&#8217;s important to buy less, and to buy well. Only buy what you really need and when you do buy, choose the most sustainable option wherever possible. As a consumer you have power. If you buy an electric car, or buy artificial meat, it drives the rate of innovation up and makes a statement that more of this is needed.</li>
</ul>
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<ul>
<li aria-level="1">As an employee, ask your company to take action &#8211; Engage the company you work with to take more action on sustainability within the organisation and their supply chain. One specific thing you can do is investigate your pension fund, and make sure that your money is supporting green funds. Learn about our <a href="https://ecologi.com/business">carbon offset programs for businesses.</a></li>
</ul>

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Achieving the emissions reductions needed to reach net zero by 2050 and to limit warming to 1.5°C isn&#8217;t going to be easy. It will need everyone to engage with the climate crisis and get involved in solving it. But we believe that we can do it. <a href="https://ecologi.com/plan">Sign up</a> to Ecologi today to help fund the world&#8217;s best climate solutions. Together we have the power to change the world.

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UK Voluntary Carbon Market Guide: Best Practices for Climate Action

The voluntary carbon market plays an important role in corporate climate strategies – but its effectiveness relies on buyers doing due diligence and rigorous quality assessment on each project, as well as placing the purchase of credits in the right place in the climate journey.
To ensure meaningful climate impact, businesses must develop a comprehensive carbon strategy and find ways to fund only high-quality credits in the voluntary carbon market – and this guide shows you how to do so with Ecologi.

<h2>Table of contents</h2>
<ul>
<li>When to buy carbon credits</li>
<li>Our new carbon projects assessment framework</li>
<li>Ecologi&#8217;s core due diligence principles</li>
<li>How Ecologi scores and ranks carbon credit projects</li>
<li>Questions to ask your carbon credit supplier</li>
<li>Take action in the voluntary carbon market</li>
</ul>

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<h2>When should businesses buy carbon credits in the voluntary market?</h2>
Businesses must not use credits in place of making direct, measurable reductions in their emissions. Instead, follow these steps to ensure you buy your carbon credits on the right step of your corporate climate action journey, and in the right way:
<ol>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Measure your emissions first – to allow you to understand where your business’s emissions are coming from. 
</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Set science-based targets and work towards them – set ambitious targets aligned with the SBTi and compatible with the global 1.5ºC warming target.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Beyond value chain mitigation (BVCM) – design your BVCM portfolio to work alongside your decarbonisation plan and address your unabated emissions in each reporting year. Align it with SBTi guidance and the Oxford Principles. </li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Buy high-quality carbon credits – use this guide to ensure the carbon credits you buy meet rigorous quality standards. Remember, under the SBTi framework you’ll also need permanent carbon removal credits for neutralising your residual emissions when you reach your net-zero date.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Disclose and report transparently – publicly disclose information about your carbon credit purchases, and clearly communicate the limited role of carbon credits in your broader sustainability strategy.</li>
</ol>

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<h2>Ecologi&#8217;s carbon project assessment framework</h2>
In April 2025, we published a report summarising how we assess carbon credit projects against our rigorous proprietary rubric. A snapshot of what goes into our carbon credit project assessment is below, or you <a href="https://cms-assets.offset.earth/app/uploads/20250428124112/Ecologi_Whitepaper_A4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">download the full whitepaper here</a>.

<h2>Carbon project due diligence: Ecologi’s core principles</h2>
At Ecologi, we maintain general due diligence principles which we apply universally across the voluntary carbon market, to support our efforts to supply only high-quality carbon credits.
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">ICROA-endorsed standards only – we supply credits exclusively from carbon standards which are ICROA-endorsed.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Responsive to ICVCM decisions – we support the ICVCM’s two-tick approach to providing CCP-Approval to project methodologies, and we go further still, to assess individual projects on their merits and limitations as well.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Keep the carbon credit life cycle as short as possible – 75% of our credits in 2024 came directly from project developers and their nominated dispensaries (as opposed to intermediaries on the secondary market), maximising the proportion of purchase price which goes to the developer.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Locally-appropriate projects only – we take care to ensure that supported projects are being applied in appropriate geographies, where they can have the greatest impact.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Deep project-level scrutiny – our extensive assessment criteria are specific to each type of project, and we assess every project against these criteria, ensuring the project’s specifics have been taken into account.</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Methodological consensus – we synthesise data we receive from our partners Sylvera, BeZero Carbon, Calyx Global and Renoster) with our own in-house analysis to uncover where there is consensus about project quality, and improve confidence.</li>
</ul>

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<h2>How to evaluate carbon credits: Ecologi&#8217;s scoring methodology</h2>
We designed a three-layer assessment process which takes into account the merits and limitations of the carbon standard used, the carbon credit methodology used, and of the individual project design.
The tables below summarise some of the data inputs we use at each stage.

<h3>Assessment level: Carbon Standard</h3>
Examples: Gold Standard, Verra, Puro Earth, Isometric, Plan Vivo.

<h3>Assessment level: Methodology (or ‘Protocol’)</h3>
Examples: GS TPDDTEC, VM0048, ACM0002.

<h3>Assessment level: Project</h3>
Examples: GS 10790, VCS 1571.

Criteria in the assessment are categorised as either quality criteria or risk criteria, and are segmented by our three pillars of impact: Climate, Nature and People. Based on how it meets each criterion, the project gains points for quality criteria, and loses points for excess risk – ultimately giving a risk-adjusted value out of 100 for each of these pillars.
Having gathered our risk-adjusted pillar scores, we use our own unique scoring formula which weights the risk-adjusted Climate score of the project equally with the combined risk-adjusted Nature and People scores. The formula then produces an ‘overall’ score (also out of 100) for the project. In order to be supplied by Ecologi, projects must meet a minimum overall score of 80, and must achieve no lower than 65 in any given risk-adjusted pillar score.

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<h2>Key questions to ask carbon credit suppliers</h2>
Selecting the right carbon credit provider is important to help guide you to make informed choices as part of your corporate sustainability strategy. Before purchasing carbon credits, businesses should ask:
<h3>Project quality </h3>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Do you assess/validate/underwrite project quality? If so, how?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Do your projects get good ratings from the ratings agencies? If so, what ratings are they?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Do you source credits directly from project developers, or from the secondary market?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Do you monitor projects over time to ensure continued success, and how do you remedy it, if a project&#8217;s quality drops?</li>
</ul>
<h3>Due diligence</h3>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">How do you ensure you are supporting the right projects in the right locations?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">How do you account for project permanence and mitigate risks?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">What makes your projects additional?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">How do you assess the project&#8217;s impacts on climate, nature and people?</li>
</ul>
<h3>Positioning</h3>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">How do you contribute to the development of a high integrity voluntary carbon market?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Do you align your portfolios with the Oxford Principles? If so, how?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">How do you reflect ICVCM guidance on carbon credit methodologies and technologies?</li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;" aria-level="1">Do you build multi-year portfolios that align to mid- &amp; long-term SBTs?</li>
</ul>
As the voluntary carbon market evolves, corporate buyers have the power and the responsibility to demand high-impact credits to drive real climate progress. This means buyers have a responsibility to do due diligence before placing an order for carbon credits.

<h2>Take action in the voluntary carbon market</h2>
As a business committed to corporate climate action, understanding the voluntary carbon market is essential for making informed decisions about carbon credits. Our comprehensive whitepaper provides deeper insights into creating an effective sustainability strategy.
<a href="https://cms-assets.offset.earth/app/uploads/20250428124112/Ecologi_Whitepaper_A4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Download our full whitepaper</a> to learn how your business can navigate the voluntary carbon market with confidence.

<h2>Connect with one of our climate experts</h2>
Please complete our form to arrange a 30-minute discovery call to discuss your goals and get a tailored solution for your business.

2020 was the joint hottest year on record despite a 7% drop in greenhouse gas emissions. Why?

A record breaking 2020

Basics of carbon dioxide and climate

The difference between emissions and concentrations

What effect has the COVID-19 pandemic had?

Where do we go from here?

How might we achieve the emissions reductions needed?

What can individuals do?

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